H. Çiğdem Yorgancıoğlu
http://www.cigdemyorgancioglu.org/
“The Wings OF ROBUST BREXIT NEGOTIATION Oscillates in Turbulence.
It’s EURO DYNAMIC not AERODYNAMIC”
PREFACE
Retrospectively, membership applications by the UK to join the EEC were refused in 1963 and 1967 since the French President of the time Charles de Gaulle doubted the UK's political will.
It is understood, however, his real fear was that English would suddenly become the common language of the community based on BBC News. Then, it was 1973 [i] the United Kingdom has become a fully-fledged member of the European Economic Community. Celebrations were held in the city and one of Britain's new European Commissioners, George Thomson, joined revelers in a torch lit procession. Prime Minister Edward Heath was optimistic that Britain's membership of the community will bring prosperity to the country.
Then a new chapter opened with the ongoing Brexit negotiations. Today which created a new transition era covering the Early Election Period in UK?
UK one of the significant, reinforcing blocks of Buttressed Wall, metaphorically “European Union” has been puffing not only the Member States’ policies but also the Whole World with her Brexit Choice since the Referendum held on Thursday 23rd June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Probable Brexit domino effect is perceived and considered as “scary nightmare” by the people of continental Europe especially by Germany and France. The meaning of Emmanuel Macron's triumph in the French presidential elections interpreted as the decease of 'Frexit',or at least any attempted Frexit move is suspended for a while. Shall Brexit fade the European supportive column of Atlantic Alliance or not is another question.
Actually, the next general election wasn’t due until 2020, but British Prime Minister Theresa May has urged Parliament to vote to go to the polls again. Only a year after Britain is scheduled to formally withdraw from the European Union under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The vote would have hung over the Brexit negotiations, and possibly hamstrung negotiators as they attempted to finalize a deal. Now, May — or whoever wins the election — will be able to go into talks with a mandate for their approach. So if If Britain votes this year, it won’t have to do it again until 2022
Britain triggered Article 50, the formal process for leaving the EU, in March 2017, beginning a two-year negotiating process. May has expected to wrap up the talks by October 2018 to get the final deal passed by the European Parliament and in time for Britain's scheduled departure on March 29, 2019. Regarding the permanent disintegration of UK, EU position is quite imperative. European Union desired Britain’s disconnect to happen in a systematic and orderly fashion with sound solutions. The negotiation guidelines for each phase of Britain's withdrawal talks should be considered meticulously therefore the phases of Britain's withdrawal “BREXIT” talks and the process would take time. The talks, debates and negotiations would be complex and those who whispered the withdrawal would not touch the bloc were under “misconception”. Hence the comprehensive, considerate handling of the priorities, concerns, facts and issues of EU27 is essential for a better comprehension in the transition period.
UK’'s choice to leave the bloc, exodus from the EU is driving up complex legal issues and questions which could affect thousands of Turkish people living in Britain. Therefore Ankara Agreement (ECAA - European Community Association Agreement with Turkey) shall be taken into consideration as well.
To sum up, there are numerous perspectives, wide-ranging prospective consequences of Brexit which can be examined through diligent interdisciplinary approach. The standpoint of affected bodies including the experts of regulatory entities there may be domestic, European (EU Members), or International. Various points of views will be the indispensable component of the analysis.. Subsequently the genesis, purpose, and scope of this essay trace the significant debates mentioned above in the withdrawal process including the legal perspectives, based on socio- economic, geo-politic country’s strategies. The EU Member States’ people standpoints and viewpoints of opinion leaders regarding the position of Turkey will also be envisioned and focused in this connotation. The dynamics of transition will be remarked and EU27 priorities like Continued UK commitment to European security, Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK, Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Defend the unity of the EU, Keep good trade links with the UK shall be explicated.
LIMITATION OF THE SCOPE
Evidently, the Brexit will have several effects on Turkey, on the path of EU, 54-year campaign to join the Bloc and the slow progress of EU accession talks is an elongated debate which shall be studied in a different essay.
H. Çiğdem Yorgancıoğlu
http://www.cigdemyorgancioglu.org/
BREXIT” “EXODUS DISCOMFORTS WITH EU”
The British government’s key Brexit red lines – controlling EU immigration, winding up the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, calling time on further big EU budget contributions – are by now well known, set out first in speeches by Theresa May and later confirmed in a government white paper. For the EU’s red lines, the concerns, priorities and demands of each of the UK’s 27 negotiating partners are mapped on the Guardian, 21 February 2017 with the analyze headlined “What the EU27 want: Brexit red lines from the other side of the table” Some are shared, more or less, by all; others are strictly national. All will play a part in the deal Britain gets – because Brexit also means what the EU27 want it to mean.[ii]
On the basis of the news Jon Henley, Jennifer Rankin, Josh Holder and Guardian correspondents based on article that was amended on 20 February 2017 the priorities and concerns of EU27 are iterated. An earlier version described Kristian Jensen as Denmark’s foreign minister. He held that post until November 2016 and is now finance minister. The article was also revised on 21 February 2017 to take in fresher quotes from Portugal’s secretary of state for European affairs, Margarida Marques. The top graphic on the relevant page of the Guardian was amended to correct the priorities of Spain and Portugal. the priorities, facts and issues are mentioned below based on the revealed article
Austria and Germany; Priorities: Defend the unity of the EU, Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Keep good trade links with the UK
Germany has been among the most persistent and vocal of the EU27 in insisting Britain cannot “cherrypick” from the four fundamental freedoms – free movement of goods, services, capital and people – or opt out of free movement but into the single market. Angela Merkel, the chancellor, said: “If we were to make an exception for the free movement of people with Britain, it would mean we would endanger the principles of the whole internal market.”
But Berlin and Vienna accept the goal of maintaining close ties with Britain will demand some flexibility on free movement – possibly by tightening benefits access for recent arrivals. “Unless the political chemistry is poisoned totally, there should be room to find a solution and look at new models for Britain to structure future migration,” an Austrian official said. Germany recognizes the need for an interim deal to smooth Brexit but fears it could be as laborious to seal as the final agreement and will not compromise on free movement. “If [the deal] is too comfortable, the Brits will fall asleep in it,” one diplomat said.
Italy; Priorities: Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK, Keep good trade links with the UK
Italy has been far less confrontational over Brexit than some EU member (despite a spat over prosecco sales). After a disastrous December referendum, the new government is focused above all on domestic politics. Rome has two key Brexit red lines: maintaining the link between the single market and free movement, and ensuring the rights of Italians in the UK. But analysts say it feels less exposed to the ill-effects of Brexit than others so sees a possible role as a mediator. “In general we consider this a damage limitation process, not an opportunity,” said Sandro Gozi, undersecretary of European affairs. “We are going to lose something, and the UK is going to lose more.” It is worried, though, about the timing of the UK’s article 50 declaration: Italy’s celebrations for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome are on 25 March. “We will be more interested in those who want to share a common future than those who do not want a future,” Gozi said.
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; Priorities: Continued UK commitment to European security, Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK, Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Defend the unity of the EU
Intensely wary of Russian expansionism, the three Baltic states hope a post-Brexit UK will stay close on EU foreign policy and defense. They will be some of the friendlier faces around the negotiating table. But Lithuania’s foreign minister, Linas Linkevičius, said a “pragmatic, mutually acceptable solution” and “special UK model” will still require London to compromise on free movement versus single market access. As major recipients of EU funds, all three see the EU’s value and will defend its unity: “A country like mine sees all too well the costs of non-Europe,” said Latvia’s EU ambassador, Sanita Pavᶅuta-Deslandes. They are also determined that the rights of their nationals in the UK are protected – some 160,000 Latvians live in Britain – and will insist on continued EU budget contributions if Britain wants enhanced single market access.
Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands; Priorities: Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Defend the unity of the EU Brexit must be a worse deal than membership, Keep good trade links with the UK
Belgium and Luxembourg were founding members of the European project and remain among the EU’s biggest cheerleaders, sending leaders such as Herman Van Rompuy and Jean-Claude Juncker to Brussels and hosting the main EU institutions. People here see the right to live, work and study abroad as a fundamental promise of EU citizenship. “What we are trying to achieve is not just some kind of economic optimum, but bringing together the peoples of Europe,” one diplomat said. In theory, Luxembourg’s bankers could gain from the UK’s departure. But no one is rubbing their hands with glee. Brexit is a “lose-lose situation”, the diplomat said. Britain is the Netherlands’ third-largest export market and the Dutch stand to lose more than most from Brexit, but rising Euroscepticism means it will offer few favours: it cannot afford to make Brexit look like an attractive model.
Malta and Cyprus; Priorities: Maintain the link between the single market and free movement Defend the unity of the EU
Malta will hold the EU’s rotating presidency when article 50 is triggered; countries in that position – which involves chairing the EU’s daily meetings – are usually keen to uphold the EU rulebook. Despite Commonwealth ties and long familiarity with Britain, Malta will not push for special favours for the UK. “Any deal has to be a fair deal but an inferior deal,” said PM Joseph Muscat, adding that the EU was not bluffing on free movement and “like any divorce, this could get messy” Cyprus seeks a “smooth and painless” Brexit, but it, too, has stressed the EU is “a set menu, not an à la carte arrangement” and any exit deal must be inferior to membership.
France; Priorities: Brexit must be a worse deal than membership, maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Defend the unity of the EU, Bilateral defense and border treaties
France has been by far the most outspoken of the EU27 on the UK’s “have cake and eat it” stance. “There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price” to Brexit, said France’s president, François Hollande. It was not possible for Britain to “leave and not pay anything” Three factors explain this. First, France wants Brexit to be a deterrent, not a model, for other Euro sceptics – not least its own Front National. Second, it sees Brexit as an economic opportunity: Paris is actively targeting UK businesses, notably in the finance sector, worried by the prospect of single market exclusion. Nevertheless Britain’s departure also presents a major foreign policy opportunity, to reform the EU and re-impose French influence. Whoever is in the Elyse, from the staunchly pro-EU Emmanuel Macron to more anti-federalist François Fillon, Paris will push for a hard Brexit that – as the French senate said this month – must be a worse deal for the UK than membership (though if Marine Le Pen becomes president, all bets are off). Two further factors to consider: France will certainly seek to retain current close Anglo-French defense ties and may well throw the vexed issue of the bilateral Le Touquet accord – which places the UK border in Calais – into the mix.
Spain and Portugal; Priorities Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK, Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Keep good trade links with the UK, Gibraltar
On top of protecting the rights of its citizens, Portugal wants to secure a good future trading relationship with its fourth largest export market and maintain its historic alliance with the UK.
Portugal’s secretary of state for European affairs, Margarida Marques, said Lisbon would have preferred to see the UK remain in the single market, but stressed that there could be no “picking and choosing” as the four freedoms are indivisible. “We welcome the priority Britain is giving to an agreement on the rights of the EU citizens living in the UK and vice-versa,” she said. “But let me be clear, while the UK remains a member, all the internal market rules – including free movement of persons – should be esteemed.”
Madrid, too, is concerned about the rights of the tens of thousands of
Spaniards in Britain, eager to retain the economic benefits of 300,000 mainly
retired Britons in Spain (though maybe not their health costs), and would like
the 17 million British holidaymakers who visited Spain in 2016 to keep coming.
It could also resuscitate an old Spanish grievance. José Manuel
García-Margallo, the recently replaced foreign minister, said the Brexit vote
would help the Spanish flag fly over Gibraltar. The tone has since moderated,
but while it is unclear how far Spain will seek to use Brexit talks to push
joint sovereignty claims, it certainly could.
Sweden, Denmark and Finland; Priorities: Maintain the link between the single market and free movement; defend the unity of the EU, A fair deal on the EU budget
Among the UK’s closest allies in the EU, with strong Eurosceptic parties of their own and often seeing eye-to-eye on issues such as institutional reform, free trade and migration, the three Nordic countries have nonetheless all said their prime interest now lies in preserving the unity of the bloc. “As close as possible relations with the UK are what we prefer,” said Ann Linde, Sweden’s minister for EU affairs and trade. “But it is more important that the EU as such is functioning at its absolute best and most effective.”
Denmark, too, will put self-interest above its historically strong trade links
with the UK. “Our instinct is to be friendly,” said one diplomat. “But our
national advantage is clearly best served by preserving and reinforcing the
single market. “Denmark’s finance minister, Kristian Jensen, said there can be
“no such thing as a free lunch, not even for a country like Britain, which has
been a close ally of Denmark for many, many years”.
Finland, like its Nordic neighbors, has warned the EU budget will be a
necessary factor in negotiations – and said Britain should not try to relax
regulations or aggressively cut corporation tax to attract business after
Brexit.
Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia; Priorities: Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK, Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, Keep good trade links with the UK,A fair deal on the EU budget.
The so-called Visegrad group has threatened to veto any Brexit deal that does not protect the rights of their citizens living in the UK, but in fact may – withins limits – prove among the more amenable of Britain’s negotiating partners. All four countries saw the UK as a staunch EU ally: both a bulwark against federalism and Franco-German dominance and a supporter of economic liberalism, as well as a strong defense to the east. But while they will miss Britain, Brexit represents a chance to advance the “euro-realist” agenda pushed by the current hardline governments in Warsaw and Budapest, both of which – while they have no intention of leaving the EU – would like to see Brussels’ influence weakened. Alarmed by Russia’s assertiveness, Poland is particularly eager to keep the UK closely involved in European foreign and defence policy and clearly hopes to be London’s best friend in Europe, but all the Visegrad nations would back a Brexit deal that preserves good EU-UK ties. However, they won’t do that at any price. With more than 850,000 nationals from Poland alone living in Britain, reciprocal rights will be a sticking point, as will free movement: for many in central Europe, the rights and responsibilities of the single market allowed their countries to become modern economies. They will not be sold cheaply.
Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia; Priorities: Preserve EU citizens' rights in the UK,Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, A fair deal on the EU budget
Romania, whose 400,000 citizens in the UK make up the second largest community from an EU country after Poland, will insist above all that “not respecting or accepting freedom of movement cancels access to the internal market”, said its president, Klaus Iohannis. Bulgaria, the poorest EU member state, will seek to protect its well over 70,000 nationals in Britain and may well use the opportunity presented by Brexit to hold out for guarantees of EU cash and material aid in the event of another wave of migrants and refugees crossing its border from Turkey. Slovenia, too, has warned against cherry-picking and insisted that Britain pay its EU budget exit bill in full, while the EU’s newest member, Croatia, has said it expects Brexit to be a long and difficult process “with far-reaching consequences” that could last years and will probably require “a tailor-made deal”.
Ireland; Priorities: Maintain the link between the single market and free movement, No hard border with Northern Ireland
Brexit is likely to have a more profound economic impact on the Republic of Ireland than on any other EU member state, a Lords report said last month, possibly exceeding even the effect on the UK. The UK is Ireland’s largest export market and Dublin will seek a deal that maximizes single market access for the UK – doing everything in its power to also ensure there is no reintroduction of a hard border with Northern Ireland. At the same time, it sees an opportunity to capitalize on Brexit by welcoming UK businesses, particularly in the financial sector, that are eager to remain in the single market and a fiscally friendly, English-speaking environment.
While conscious of the two countries’ “unique relationship”, the taoiseach, Enda Kenny, made clear the bloc would not budge on free movement, which he described as “one of its fundamental single market principles”.
Greece; Priorities: Defend the unity of the EU; maintain the link between the single market and free movement
Engulfed in its own economic crisis, Greece has said little about Brexit beyond Prime Minister Alexi Tsipras’s remarks that the “chronic deficiencies” of European leaders, and their insistence on austerity policies that fed nationalism and populism, were mainly to blame.
“To be frank, Brexit is an unwelcome distraction from efforts to solve Europe and especially the Eurozone’s real problems, which are most plain in the south,” one official said, adding that Greece would continue to push for more “democracy, solidarity, cohesion and growth” throughout the bloc.[iii]
UK's financial obligations to EU will be 'incontestable', says The European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, gives a press conference at the European Union headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 3, 2017. ‘Commitments have been made and those responsibilities have to be honoured’ he added. The EU’s chief negotiator has admitted to a clash with Theresa May during last week’s dinner in Downing Street and warned that the size of the multibillion pound bill the British government will be presented on leaving the bloc will be “incontestable” He told reporters the “clock was ticking” on the time left to come to an agreement about the future as he unveiled the EU’s opening stance on citizens’ rights, the UK’s financial obligations and the border in Ireland. Reports have emerged that the EU is preparing to demand a payment of up to €100bn (£84.5bn), up from a previously estimated €60bn, due to new stricter demands driven by France and Germany. Based on [iv]news on The Guardian by Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin in Brussels and Heather Stewart in London Wednesday 3rd May 2017
ECAA - EUROPEAN COMMUNITY ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH TURKEY (ANKARA AGREEMENT) AND BREXIT
Photo Source Middle Monitor - Buckingham palace with UK and Turkish flags [Twitter/Anakara Times]
Turkey may or may not hold Brexit-style referendum on EU accession[v] is not clear yet however ECAA will be on the agenda.
Thousands of Turkish people living in Britain on a permit [vi]created by a special 1963 treaty are being told their situation will be “business as usual” during Brexit. However, the UKs decision to leave the EU is throwing up complex legal questions which could affect thousands of Turkish people living in Britain based on the news Middle East Monitor on February 24, 2017 that published in Europe and Russia.
Turkey’s ambassador to the UK, Abdurrahman Bilgic, told Anadolu Agency those citizens living in Britain on a business document linked to the September 1963 Ankara Agreement (ECAA - European Community Association Agreement with Turkey) would not see a change in their status while the UK negotiates its departure from the European Union. Under the free-visa scheme, Turkish citizens are entitled to set up a business in the UK and live in the country with no further requirements.
It has been a very popular initiative, with up to 20,000 Turks now living in the UK under the Ankara Agreement.[vii]
However, Bilgic pointed out the Ankara Agreement was not a bilateral UK/Turkey deal. “Once the UK officially exits from the EU, it will not be a party to the Agreement, just like all the other agreements that the UK is a party to owing to her EU membership,” he said. The Turkish government was “well aware of the concerns” among its citizens living in the UK after the Brexit vote and said regular meetings were being held with Home Office officials he added.
As Brexit is now expected to start with the UK government triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to initiate formal negotiations to leave the 28-member bloc, it is not only EU citizens who are waiting for a clear answer from the authorities about what will happen to their rights.
Turkish citizen Sinan Yildirim from the Black Sea city of Trabzon is one of the thousands of Turks now unsure about his future in the UK
Sinan is a builder who has lived in the UK for the past five years after obtaining a permit thanks to the Ankara Agreement.
“I have no idea what will happen to us living here on the Ankara Agreement visa after Brexit,” he says. “I don’t think there will be a backwards step for those who have the visa on the agreement because I know that their gained rights will not be reversed,” he added.
But Sinan, like many others, wants more clarity. “We would like to see things get clearer soon because we do not wish to see any suffering and this is very important for our trade,” he told Anadolu Agency. However, not everyone is confident about the future.
A Turkish international law consultant, Hakan Camuz, thought Brexit “would mean an end to a legal agreement between two countries and therefore it will end the possibility of Turkish nationals’ right to get leave, unless both parties make a separate agreement.”
However, he found the recent visit by UK Prime Minister Theresa May to Turkey and the countries’ general relationship “encouraging”, making a separate deal more likely upon “the initiative of both governments”.
Another legal consultant, Yasar Dogan, thought “it is very early and limited information is available to make conclusive comments as to the precise impact of Brexit on Turkish citizens who would like to rely on the Ankara Agreement”.
“Much of the political discussions have focused on European Union citizens and thus far nothing has been said about Turkish citizens,” he told Anadolu Agency. Dogan said: “It is worth noting here that Brexit is not an easy process … it might have an impact on the Ankara Agreement too, as it is considered European Union law. “It might mean that the Ankara Agreement will be enforceable as domestic law for years to come following Brexit unless … it will be specifically selected for abolition in the future.”
However, Ambassador Bilgic said he had been reassured by British officials that there would be no change in the short-term. Bilgic said: “Our counterparts underlined that until the UK officially leaves the EU, business will be as usual. “All the applications under the Ankara Agreement will be processed as they are normally. The British officials also stressed that there will not be a slowdown during this process.”
PUBLIC OPINION FUTURE RECORDS FOR BREXIT ON AGENDA
Britain votes next week 8th June, in a snap election that Prime Minister Theresa May called in the hopes of expanding and strengthening the Conservative Party’s parliamentary majority. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labor Party, hopes to chunk that. [viii]
New York Times prescribed a questionnaire for U.K. Voters to share their views on coming Election. The questionnaire headlined as “U.K. Voters, Share Your Views on the Election” and narrated as “We want to hear from voters about the parties and the issues. Your response may be used in a future story.” 150 Words quota was granted for each answer. The methodology for the assessment and evaluation of the questionnaire is not declared. Presumably it shall be the source of forthcoming statistical data. The pertinent questions are as follows;
What do you hope the snap election will accomplish? If possible, please tell us how it could affect you personally. *
Do you have a preferred party? *
How strongly do you identify with your party, if you have one? In this election, have you felt more or less affinity toward your party than in the past? *
How did you vote in the “Brexit” referendum last summer? *
How do you plan to vote on June 8, and why? *
G-7 MEETING, EUROPEAN ALLIANCE AND BREXIT
Angela Merkel calls for European unity in face of growing challenges. German Chancellor says bloc needs to work together as factors including Donald Trump, Brexit and climate change conspire to unsettle member states on the basis of news reported by David Rising May 29, 2017,in Independent, UK and Merkel has urged European Union (EU) nations to stick together in the face of emerging policy divisions with the US, Britain's choice to leave the bloc and other challenges.
David Rising –Independent UK May 29, 2017
On The basis of the article by Patrick Donahue i.e. “Merkel Signals New Era for Europe as Trump Smashes Consensus” on Bloomberg, May 29, 2017, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her toughest indication yet that Europe and the U.S. under President Donald Trump are drifting apart, saying reliable relationships forged since the end of World War II “are to some extent over.” Merkel’s comments at a campaign rally signal that previous week’s Group of Seven and NATO summits will reinforce her effort to unite the European Union behind a global agenda that clashes with Trump’s in key areas. She’s receiving Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, hosts his Chinese counterpart, Li Keqiang, on Thursday, and is looking for a fresh start in German-French ties with newly elected President Emmanuel Macron. The leader of Europe’s biggest economy offered a glimpse of her world view after Trump concluded a nine-day foreign trip during which he hectored NATO allies for allegedly and supposedly not spending adequate on defense, called Germany’s trade surplus “very bad” and brought the U.S. to the brink of exiting the global Paris climate accord. “The times when we could fully rely on others are to some extent over -- I experienced that in the last few days,” Merkel told supporters in Munich on Sunday, a day after the G-7 meeting ended. “We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands. ”Of course we need to have friendly relations with the U.S. and with the U.K. and with other neighbors, including Russia,” she said. Even so, “we have to fight for our own future ourselves.” Merkel was speaking as a “deeply committed Trans-Atlanticist,” her chief spokesman Steffen Seibert said reporters in Berlin on Monday. “Honestly pointing out differences is the right thing to do, precisely because trans-Atlantic relations are so important.” The venue for Merkel’s comments, a beer tent festooned with blue-and-white bunting set up by the chancellor’s Bavarian allies in the Christian Social Union, showed the German leader in campaign mode ahead Germany’s election in September. Before that, she’ll host a “Group of 20” summit in Hamburg in July. Seeking her fourth term, Merkel, 62, brandished a tankard of beer after projecting herself as a defender of global stability after almost 12 years in office. She cited election victories over nationalist movements in France and the Netherlands as evidence that EU are voters were retreating from a populist surge. Richard Haass, president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, called Merkel’s comments on trans-Atlantic ties a “watershed” in a Twitter message, saying the scenario is “what U.S. has sought to avoid” since World War II. Faced with a more unpredictable world, Europeans may now “move nearer together and address what has been missing for so long, namely institutional reform and a way forward for the European Union, and the euro zone in particular,” Burkhard Varnholt, Credit Suisse Group’s deputy chief investment officer, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
Trump rejected overtures by mostly European leaders to commit to the Paris climate treaty at the weekend G-7 meeting, a development Merkel called “very unsatisfactory.” After first meeting Trump in Washington in March, Merkel has had little achievement in finding common ground with her new American counterpart. Despite Merkel’s commitment to working toward NATO’s goal for each member country to spend the equivalent of 2 percent of its economic output on defense by 2024, Trump dressed down the leaders of the alliance at a summit meeting on May 25 for “not paying what they should.” He spoke shortly after Merkel gave a two-minute speech lauding the alliance’s common purpose. The German leader has hit back repeatedly as the Trump administration lambastes the country’s trade surplus with the U.S. On climate, European officials have braced for a possible U.S. exit from the first international agreement that sets commitments on limiting global warming -- an accord put together in 2015 by almost 200 countries and strongly backed by Merkel.
Relations between Germany and the U.S. were strained in 2002-2003 when
then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder rejected to support the U.S. invasion of Iraq
under President George W. Bush. Merkel’s comments, though, signaled a broader
trans-Atlantic split. Merkel’s line on reliability, Europe’s need to plot its
own course and her pledge to “fight” in Europe’s interest drew extended
applause from supporters dressed in lederhosen and dirndls.
Regarding the Election Mode, Bavarian premier Horst Seehofer, who heads the
CSU, shared the stage with Merkel and applauded her for “representing our
fatherland excellently” abroad. The kudos by Seehofer, who pilloried Merkel
throughout the country’s refugee crisis for not doing enough to stem the flow
of migrants, marked a turnaround. After three state election conquests by her
Christian Democratic Union since March, she’s rebounded in polls against her
main challenger, Social Democrat Martin Schulz. Merkel’s CDU and the CSU
jointly lead the Social [ix]Democrats
by 13 percentage points, according to an Emnid poll published Saturday,
capturing a turnaround after Schulz lifted the SPD to a dead heat with the
chancellor’s bloc in February and March.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IS BREXIT A HAZARD ON ECONOMY ?
Anglo-Saxon economies benefit from Brexit, Trump, says BlackRock’s Fink
Based on the news of “Proactive Investors”.by George Matlock the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit vote have helped boost small businesses and consumer spending as previously disillusioned voters feel they “have a voice” on the global economic stage, Larry Fink The chairman and CEO of BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) said on 20 Jan 2017 Speaking at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Fink, who presides over the world’s largest investor, said the aftermath of both votes – which shocked the economic and political establishment – have already led to rising spending in the UK and US, defying prior warnings of market and economic turmoil. Car sales in the US, for example, have seen a boost since Trump’s election victory.
Seems Fink, whose asset manager handles $5tln, is among those contradicted by events. Before the Brexit referendum, Fink warned of a recession in the UK, predicting it would slash two percentage points off GDP on the back of declining investment and consumer spending.
….
According to by Simon Tilford who put forward his views on The New York Times Opinion section; an observer of Britain’s “Brexit” debate would be forgiven for thinking that the country’s economy is one of the European Union’s star performers. He considers and presumes that Brexit’ will make Britain’s mediocre economy to be exacerbated while enlightening the reasons and motives in his analyze
Brexit’s advocates rarely pass up an opportunity to claim that the European Union economy is the world’s weak link, and that Britain’s reformed, dynamic and flexible economy has little to risk, and much to gain, from leaving it. The reality is rather different. And Brexit threatens to make matters worse. Britain’s economic performance relative to the other big economies in Western Europe — including France, Germany, Italy and Spain — does not stand out as impressive, at least once the different prices of goods and services across these countries are factored in. As the chart below shows, British economic growth between 2000 and 2015 lagged behind Spain and Germany.
And in 2015 Britain ranks only slightly ahead of France, a country that has become synonymous in Britain with economic weakness. Sustainable increases in living standards require economies to combine land, labor, capital and technology in more efficient ways; Britain has made a poor job of this, helping to explain why Britons’ wages have risen by much less than their French and German counterparts over the last 15 years.
A Britain outside of the European Union will inevitably be less open to trade with member states, which will curb competition and productivity growth. Tax revenues will fall, further squeezing infrastructure investment and education spending. That’s why, far from liberating Britain to conquer world markets as a buccaneering trading nation, Brexit threatens to make its mediocre economic performance even worse.[x]
EU WATCHDOG ISSUES LICENSING GUIDE FOR BREXIT RUSH OF FINANCIAL FIRMS
The European Union's securities watchdog has published guidance to stop national supervisors from competing unfairly with each other to woo financial firms in a post-Brexit rush from Britain based on the news reported by [xi]Huw Jones London and edited by by David Goodman Reuters Business News Wed May 31st 2017 with the headline “EU watchdog issues licensing guide for Brexit rush of financial firms” Dublin complained to Brussels that rival financial centres were offering a "back door" to the EU's single market through lax rules.In response to such concerns, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said on Wednesday that national regulators need to prepare for greater demand for licenses as financial firms in Britain seek to relocate to an EU of 27 countries after Britain's departure in 2019. Britain is the EU's biggest financial market and firms there may need to shift operations to continue serving customers within the bloc. "The EU27 have a shared interest in building a common approach to dealing with relocating firms that wish to continue to benefit from access to EU financial markets," ESMA Chairman Steven Maijoor said in a statement.
"Firms need to be subject to the same standards of authorization and ongoing supervision across the EU27 to avoid competition on regulatory and supervisory practices between member states."
The guidance is non-binding but has the backing of ESMA's board, making it harder for a member state's regulator to ignore. Securities regulators authorize mutual funds, hedge funds, investment firms and trading operations. The guidance sets out nine principles that tell regulators to start from scratch when asked for a license by a British financial firm. There should be "no automatic" recognition of authorizations granted by UK regulators, ESMA said.
This contrasts with the European Central Bank (ECB), which will accept UK authorizations for parts of a bank for a certain period to speed up licensing.
ESMA said that regulators should not authorize "letter box" entities that have few staff or operations. Outsourcing or delegation of operations to Britain should be allowed only "under strict conditions", it said, taking a similar stance to the ECB. "Market partakers wishing to engage in outsourcing or delegation remain fully responsible for the tasks or functions that are outsourced or delegated," ESMA said.
London-based Aquis Exchange, a share-trading platform looking to open an EU subsidiary after Brexit, is being encouraged by several national regulators, CEO Alasdair Haynes said. "I do think there are potential deals people are offering and there is nothing in the ESMA principles that would prevent anything going forward based on proper regulation and good governance," Haynes told Reuters.
The objective of ESMA's guidance is to halt national regulators seeking to
attract new affiliates by allowing them to outsource or delegate a large volume
of activity, such as an EU broker-dealer's subsidiary booking trades at a
central hub in London to cut costs. The EU's insurance watchdog is due to
publish similar guidance to national watchdogs. The ECB has already published
guidance on what banks can expect when applying for a banking licence in the
euro zone. ESMA said it would develop more specific guidance for asset
managers, investment firms and secondary markets.
IRISH PERSPECTIVE FOR BREXIT
Charlie Flanagan, Ireland’s foreign minister, said last month it was “reasonable to assume that there are large numbers of people of Irish descent who now feel that they would like to remain as EU citizens in what is a changing time in relations between Ireland and the UK”. Based on the news reported by Tom Batchelor [xii]May 30, 2017,in Independent, UK with the headline “Dramatic’ surge in UK applications for Irish passports in wake of Brexit, says ambassador
Number of applications for British citizenship from people living in the EU also on the increase
“The number of applications for British citizenship from people living in the EU has also jumped since the Brexit vote. Passport Office figures, obtained by the Financial Times, show more than 13,000 people living elsewhere in the EU applied for a British passport last year – an increase of 35 per cent on a year earlier. The larger number of applicants were living in France, while those in Germany seeking British citizenship rose by 60 per cent.
IMMIGRATION POLICY AND BREXIT
Labor has drawn up a secret plan to allow thousands of unskilled migrants to enter the UK after Brexit, leaked documents seen by The Telegraph have revealed. Jeremy [xiii]Corbyn's party is considering bringing back a scrapped visa scheme which would allow unqualified laborers to move to the UK and compete with British workers for jobs - including seasonal work on farms and in factories grounded on the news reported by Kate McCann, senior political correspondent from The Telegraph on 30 May 2017 with the headline “Jeremy Corbyn's leaked plan to allow thousands of unskilled workers into the UK after Brexit” The policy paper also sets out plans for a green card scheme and admits Labor does not consider cutting net migration a priority.
It is the first time the party's immigration policy has been set out publicly after the manifesto set out aims but no detail on how Labor would develop a new visa system. After Brexit, EU nationals are likely to require a visa to live and work in the UK as both the Conservatives and Labor have vowed to end freedom of movement.
THE MOMENTUM OF THE ELECTION AND BREXIT
On the basis of the article by [xiv]Tim Ross and Thomas Penny from Bloomberg, Theresa May commenced the U.K. election campaign warning that pollsters giving her a 20-point lead could be wrong. With her lead now slashed, she’s hoping they really are. A series of missteps by May and her advisers, along with a populist Labor campaign, have put the prime minister on the defensive. Activists no longer laugh when she raises the prospect of a Corbyn victory at her rallies and some have questioned the wisdom of building a campaign around her own personal brand, urging people to vote for “Theresa May and her team.” Investors have awoken to the fact that May’s promise of “strong and stable” government -- never mind a landslide to match Tony Blair’s in 1997 -- could be in jeopardy with the pound dipping after a specific poll showed May’s Conservative Party leading the Labor Party by just five points. .“The Tories are right to be worried if the momentum looks to be with Labor, but they can still turn it around,” Andrew Hawkins, chairman of pollsters ComRes Ltd., said in a telephone interview.
With a nation still in shock over the Manchester bombing and June 8 elections
round the corner, May got back to the campaign trail and reverted to her tested
lines on BREXIT: That Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn cannot be trusted to navigate
Britain through two years of talks.
The Scottish National Party vowed to oppose further spending cuts by the U.K.
government and challenge Prime Minister Theresa May’s aim to leave the European
Union’s single market, saying her opposition to another independence referendum
was unsustainable based on the article by Lukanyo Mnyanda , [xv]Bloomberg,
namely “Scottish National Party set out its opposition to U.K.spending cuts and
Brexit” Presenting the party’s election manifesto,
which was postponed after the terrorist attack in Manchester last week,
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sought to broaden support to include
voters who opposed independence in 2014 and people who voted for BREXIT last year. She said the SNP was the only party
that can stand up to May’s Conservatives in Scotland. Sturgeon, 46, who runs
the semi-autonomous government in Edinburgh, said her lawmakers in the U.K.
Parliament will oppose all further welfare cuts, support a rise in the top rate
of income tax and no decrease in corporation tax. She didn’t discuss
independence until the latter stages of her 30-minute speech on Tuesday (May
30, 2017), instead joking that it was the Scottish Conservatives who were
obsessed with the separation debate.
According to Brexit Bulletin: Another Escape Route Closes by David Goodman,[xvi] Bloomberg, Opponents of Brexit have ended their attempt to use an Irish lawsuit to secure a last-minute reprieve. The case, conveyed by a lawyer and a trio of Green Party politicians, sought a declaration that Article 50 – the mechanism by which Britain served notice of its intention to leave the European Union – “is revocable at the discretion" of any member state. That would hypothetically have given the U.K. a way out if public sympathy turned against BREXIT during negotiations. Barrister Jolyon Maugham said previously that his ultimate goal was to get the case referred to the EU Court of Justice in Luxembourg. In a posting on his website on Monday, May 29th 2017 entitled “Sometimes you try and you do not succeed,” Maugham said he and his co-plaintiffs “have agreed between us and with Ireland that the litigation should be discontinued.” “It is clear that Ireland does not want a reference to the Court of Justice in
Luxembourg,” he added. “This stance surprised me.” He also said that the timing of the suit meant the questions it raised might not be answered much before October 2018 – when both the U.K. and the EU say talks on BREXIT need to be ended. Costs involved in the case could spiral, he added. The U.K. government had brushed aside the basis for Maugham’s claim, saying that there will be no backing out of Brexit. That sentiment was echoed by both sides of the political divide May 29th, 2017, when Prime Minister Theresa May and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn took questions live on Sky News and Channel 4. Their separate grilling’s were as close as voters will come to seeing the pair in a head-to-head debate before the June 8 election. Pressed on her transition from pre-referendum “Remain” campaigner to prime ministerial BREXIT negotiator, May insisted it was the role of politicians to deliver on the result of the referendum, and ensure the process is a success. She refused to name a figure she would accept as a fair price for leaving the bloc, telling veteran TV inquisitor Jeremy Paxman (as she has outlined several times before) that she would prefer no deal to a bad deal.
RECENT GREXIT OSCILLATIONS
Eclipsed last year by the UK’s vote to exit the EU, and Donald Trump’s equally unlikely US electoral victory, the nation’s epic struggle to keep bankruptcy[xvii] at bay has been out of the spotlight. Greece has three weeks to deal with 'potentially disastrous' debt. But away from the headlines, a perfect storm is brewing. Bailout negotiations between Athens and its creditors have stalled. The possibility of “Grexit,” or EURO exit, has re-emerged and bond yields have soared. The yield on two-year Greek government bonds has risen from 6{[yuzde]} to 10{[yuzde]} in less than two weeks as spooked investors have dumped their holdings. And the shrill rhetoric last seen at the height of the crisis in 2015 has returned.
ALL ABOUT BREXIT GUIDE
As the UK officially notifies the European Union that it is leaving, Alex Hunt & Brian Wheeler [xviii]BBC News prepared an easy-to-understand guide to Brexit - beginning with the basics, like “What does Brexit mean? Why is Britain leaving the European Union?
“ then a look at the negotiations, followed by a selection of answers to questions they've been sent. Based on this essay, BREXIT is a word that has become used as a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU - merging the words Britain and exit to get Brexit, in a same way as a possible Greek exit from the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past.
Why is Britain leaving the European Union?
A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9{[yuzde]} to 48.1{[yuzde]}. The referendum turnout was 71.8{[yuzde]}, with more than 30 million people voting.
What was the breakdown across the UK?
England voted for Brexit, by 53.4{[yuzde]} to 46.6{[yuzde]}. Wales also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5{[yuzde]} of the vote and Remain 47.5{[yuzde]}. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62{[yuzde]} to 38{[yuzde]}, while 55.8{[yuzde]} in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2{[yuzde]} Leave.
What changed in government after the referendum?
Britain got a new Prime Minister - Theresa May. The former home secretary took over from David Cameron, who announced he was resigning on the day he lost the referendum. Like Mr Cameron, Mrs May was against Britain leaving the EU but she played only a very low-key role in the campaign and was never seen as much of an enthusiast for the EU. She became PM without facing a full Conservative leadership contest after her key rivals from what had been the Leave side pulled out.
Where does she stand on Brexit?
Theresa May had been against Brexit during the referendum campaign but is now in favour of it because she says it is what the British people want.
Her key message has been that "Brexit means Brexit" and she triggered the two year process of leaving the EU on 29 March. She set out her negotiating goals Tusk. The letter indicated on the pertinent page.
Why has she called a general election?
Theresa May became prime minister after David Cameron resigned, so has not won her own election. She ruled out calling a snap election when she moved into Downing Street, saying the country needed a period of stability after the upheaval of the Brexit vote. She said she was happy to wait until the next scheduled election in 2020. But she surprised everyone after the Easter Bank Holiday by announcing that she had changed her mind with an election being called for Thursday, 8 June 2017. The reason she gave was that she needed to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations with European leaders. She feared Labor, the SNP and other opposition parties - and members of the House of Lords - would try to block and frustrate her strategy, making the country look divided to other EU leaders and making her government look weak. Mrs May inherited a tiny Commons majority from David Cameron, meaning that it only takes a few Conservative MPs to side with the opposition to vote down the government's plans. The Conservatives began the election campaign with a big lead over Labor in the opinion polls. Recent polls have suggested the gap has closed, but still put the Conservatives in front.
What about the economy, so far?
David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic crisis if the UK voted to leave. House prices would fall, there would be a recession with a big rise in unemployment - and an emergency Budget would be needed to bring in the large cuts in spending that would be needed.
The pound did slump the day after the referendum - and remains around 15{[yuzde]} lower against the dollar and 10{[yuzde]} down against the euro - but the predictions of immediate doom have not proved accurate with the UK economy estimated to have grown 1.8{[yuzde]} in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9{[yuzde]} among the world's G7 leading industrialized nations.
Inflation has risen - to 2.6{[yuzde]} in April - its highest rate for three and a half years, but unemployment has continued to fall, to stand at an 11 year low of 4.8{[yuzde]}. Annual house price increases have fallen from 9.4{[yuzde]} in June but were still at an inflation-busting 4.1{[yuzde]} in March, according to official ONS figures.
What is the European Union?
The European Union - often known as the EU - is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European countries . It began after World War Two to foster economic co-operation, with the idea that countries which trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with each other.
It has since grown to become a "single market" allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. It has its own currency, the euro, which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas - including on the environment, transport, consumer rights and even things such as mobile phone charges.
What is Article 50?
Article 50 is a plan for any country that wishes to exit the EU. It was created as part of the Treaty of Lisbon - an agreement signed up to by all EU states which became law in 2009. Before that treaty, there was no formal mechanism for a country to leave the EU.
It's pretty short - just five paragraphs - which spell out that any EU member state may decide to quit the EU, that it must notify the European Council and negotiate its withdrawal with the EU, that there are two years to reach an agreement - unless everyone agrees to extend it - and that the exiting state cannot take part in EU internal discussions about its departure. You can read more about Article 50 here.
What date will the UK will leave the EU?
For the UK to leave the EU it had to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives the two sides two years to agree the terms of the split. Theresa May triggered this process on 29 March, meaning the UK is scheduled to leave on Friday, 29 March 2019. It can be extended if all 28 EU members agree.
What happens if there is a different government after the general election?
Brexit would still go ahead if Labor wins the election. Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has ruled out a second referendum - but he has said MPs will get a decisive say on the final Brexit agreement with the EU, which means the UK might try to go back to the negotiating table to push for a better deal.
The Liberal Democrats are against a "hard Brexit" (see below) and have promised a second referendum on the terms of any deal. They have also ruled out any coalition deals with Labor or the Conservatives, aiming instead to become the UK's main opposition party - a big leap from their current position of having just nine MPs.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing for Scotland - which voted to remain in the EU - to have a special status after Brexit, including remaining in the single market. She has called for a second independence referendum before the Brexit package has been finalized.
What's going to happen to all the EU laws in force in the UK?
The Conservatives will enact a Great Repeal Bill, if they win the general election. This will end the primacy of EU law in the UK. This Great Repeal Bill is supposed to incorporate all EU legislation into UK law in one lump, after which the government will decide over a period of time which parts to keep, change or remove.
Labor has said they will scrap the Great Repeal Bill if they win the election and replace it with an EU Rights and Protections Bill, which will copy across all EU law into UK law but make sure it cannot be changed or scrapped. The party says it wants to keep EU laws on workers’ rights, consumer rights and the environment.
What was the Supreme Court Brexit case about?
After a court battle, the UK's Supreme Court ruled in January that Parliament had to be consulted before Article 50 was invoked. That was why a two line Brexit bill went through Parliament. MPs approved it after Labor MPs were told to support it. But it was amended in the House of Lords to include a call to guarantee the rights of EU citizens already in the UK and to ensure a "meaningful vote" for Parliament before any Brexit deal was agreed with the EU. MPs reversed those changes and the non-amended bill became law after the Lords backed down, with Labor peers dropping their backing for the changes. That cleared the way for Mrs. May to send her letter to the EU officially announcing that the UK was leaving.
Who is going to negotiate Britain's exit from the EU?
Theresa May set up a government department, headed by veteran Conservative MP and Leave campaigner David Davis, to take responsibility for Brexit. Former defence secretary, Liam Fox, who also campaigned to leave the EU, was given the new job of international trade secretary and Boris Johnson, who was a leader of the official Leave campaign, is foreign secretary. If the government wins the general election, these men - dubbed the Three Brexiteers - are each set to play roles in negotiations with the EU and seek out new international agreements, although it would be Mrs May, as prime minister, who would have the final say. “Who's who” guide to both sides' negotiators.
How long will it take for Britain to leave the EU?
Once Article 50 is triggered, the UK has two years to negotiate its withdrawal. But no one really knows how the Brexit process will work - Article 50 was only created in late 2009 and it has never been used. Former Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, who was appointed chancellor by Theresa May, wanted Britain to remain in the EU during the referendum campaign and suggested it could take up to six years for the UK to complete exit negotiations. The terms of Britain's exit will have to be agreed by 27 national parliaments, a process which could take some years, he has argued.
EU law still stands in the UK until it ceases being a member. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws, but not take part in any decision-making.
Why will Brexit take so long?
Unpicking 43 years of treaties and agreements covering thousands of different subjects was never going to be a straightforward task. It is further complicated by the fact that it has never been done before and negotiators will, to some extent, be making it up as they go along. The post-Brexit trade deal is likely to be the most complex part of the negotiation because it needs the unanimous approval of more than 30 national and regional parliaments across Europe, some of whom may want to hold referendums. The likely focus of negotiations between the UK and EU Theresa May has made it clear that the UK will not seek to stay in the EU single market if she remains prime minister. Labor has said it wants the UK to retain all the benefits of being in the single market, even though it does not necessarily have be a member. Staying in the single market mean the UK staying under the auspices of the European Court of Justice allow unlimited EU immigration, under freedom of movement rules. We found out more detail about Mrs. May's negotiating priorities in the letter officially triggering the process of the leaving the EU on 29 March. Guide to the key points stated on the pertinent page of BBC.
Mrs. May says she wants the UK to reach a new customs union deal with the EU. A customs union is where countries agree not to impose tariffs on each other’s' goods and have a common tariff on goods coming in from elsewhere. The UK is currently part of the EU customs union but that stops the UK being able to do its own trade deals with other countries.
What do 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit mean?
These terms have increasingly been used as debate focused on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. There is no strict definition of either, but they are used to refer to the closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit.
So at one extreme, "hard" Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement of people even if meant leaving the single market. At the other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit might follow a similar path to Norway, which is a member of the single market and has to accept the free movement of people as a result of that.
What happens if there is no deal with the EU?
Conservative leader Theresa May says leaving the EU with no deal whatsoever would be better than signing the UK up to a bad one. Without an agreement on trade, the UK would have to operate under World Trade Organization rules, which could mean customs checks and tariffs.
Labor says the idea of walking away with no deal must not be an option, and it would give MPs a say on the final Brexit deal - but it has ruled out a second referendum on the terms of that deal.
Some argue leaving the single market would make little difference because the UK's trading partners in the EU would not want to start a trade war. Others say it will mean greater costs for UK businesses buying and selling goods abroad.
There are also questions about what would happen to Britain's position as global financial center, without access to the single market, and the land border between the UK and Ireland. There is also concern that Brits living abroad in the EU could lose residency rights and access to free emergency health care. a full explanation of what 'no deal' could mean is highlighted on the relevant page. .
What happens to EU citizens living in the UK?
The Conservatives has declined to give a firm guarantee about the status of EU nationals currently living in the UK, saying this is not possible without a reciprocal pledge from other EU members about the millions of British nationals living on the continent.
Labor has said it would guarantee the rights of of EU citizens living in the UK to stay there on "day one" of a Labor government.
Whatever happens in the general election, EU nationals with a right to permanent residence, which is granted after they have lived in the UK for five years, should not see their rights affected.
What happens to UK citizens working in the EU?
A lot depends on the kind of deal the UK agrees with the EU. If the government opted to impose work permit restrictions on EU nationals, then other countries could reciprocate, meaning Britons would have to apply for visas to work.
What about EU nationals who want to work in the UK?
Again, it depends on whether the UK government decides to introduce a work permit system of the kind that currently applies to non-EU citizens, limiting entry to skilled workers in professions where there are shortages. Citizens' Advice has reminded people their rights have not changed yet and asked anyone to contact them if they think they have been discriminated against following the Leave vote.- Citizenadvice.org.uk
What does the fall in the value of the pound mean for prices in the shops?
People travelling overseas from the UK have found their pounds are buying fewer euros or dollars after the Brexit vote. The day-to-day spending impact is likely to be more significant. Even if the pound regains some of its value, currency experts expect it to remain at least 10{[yuzde]} below where it was on 23 June, in the long term.
This means imported goods will consequently get more expensive - some price rises for food, clothing and homeware goods have already been seen and the issue was most notably illustrated by the dispute between Tesco and Marmite's makers about whether prices would be put up or not in the stores.
The latest UK inflation figures, for April, showed the CPIH inflation rate rising to 2.6{[yuzde]}, its highest level for three and a half years, with signs of more cost pressures set to feed through in the months to come.
Will immigration be cut?
Conservative leader Theresa May has said one of the main messages she has taken from the Leave vote is that the British people want to see a reduction in immigration. She has said this will be a focus of Brexit negotiations as she remains committed to getting net migration - the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country - down to a "sustainable" level, which she defines as being below 100,000 a year.
Labor has said the free movement of people has to end when Britain leaves the EU. It has yet to reveal what system it would use for people who come to the UK for work or study. Net migration to the UK was estimated to be 248,000 in 2016 - a fall of 84,000 from 2015. The total number of people moving to the UK was made up of 264,000 non-EU citizens, 250,000 EU citizens and 74,000 British citizens. Balancing that 117,000 EU citizens left the UK, out of an estimated total of 339,000 emigrants.
Could there be a second referendum?
It seems highly unlikely. Both the Conservatives and the Labor Party have ruled out another referendum, arguing that it would be an undemocratic breach of trust with the British people who clearly voted to leave. The Liberal Democrats have vowed to hold a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal reached with the EU - but they would have to gain a lot more MPs than their current nine to stand a chance of getting what they want.
Will MPs get a vote on the Brexit deal?
Yes. Theresa May has appeared keen to avoid a vote on her negotiating stance, to avoid having to give away her priorities, but she has promised there will be a Commons and Lords vote to approve whatever deal the UK and the rest of the EU agree at the end of the two year process.
Labor is also promising a vote in Parliament, but unlike the Conservatives they want to give MPs and peers the power to send the UK back to the negotiating table if they don't like the terms of the deal. The Conservative vote would be on a "take it or leave it basis".
It is worth mentioning that any deal also has to be agreed by the European Parliament - with British MEPs getting a chance to vote on it there.
Will I need a visa to travel to the EU?
While there could be limitations on British nationals' ability to live and work in EU countries, it seems unlikely they would want to deter tourists. There are many countries outside the European Economic Area, which includes the 28 EU nations plus Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway, that British citizens can visit for up to 90 days without needing a visa and it is possible that such arrangements could be negotiated with European countries.
Will I still be able to use my passport?
Yes. It is a British document - there is no such thing as an EU passport, so your passport will stay the same. In theory, the government could, if it wanted, decide to change the colour, which is currently standardized for EU countries, says the BBC's Europe correspondent, Chris Morris.
Some say we could still remain in the single market - but what is a single market? The single market is seen by its advocates as the EU's biggest achievement and one of the main reasons it was set up in the first place. Britain was a member of a free trade area in Europe before it joined what was then known as the common market. In a free trade area countries can trade with each other without paying tariffs - but it is not a single market because the member states do not have to merge their economies together.
The European Union single market, which was completed in 1992, allows the free movement of goods, services, money and people within the European Union, as if it was a single country. It is possible to set up a business or take a job anywhere within it. The idea was to boost trade, create jobs and lower prices. But it requires common law-making to ensure products are made to the same technical standards and imposes other rules to ensure a "level playing field".
Critics say it generates too many petty regulations and robs members of control over their own affairs. Mass migration from poorer to richer countries has also raised questions about the free movement rule. Theresa May has ruled out the UK staying in the single market. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has said continued membership of the single has to be an option in negotiations with Brussels.
Has any other member state ever left the EU?
No nation state has ever left the EU. But Greenland, one of Denmark's overseas territories, held a referendum in 1982, after gaining a greater degree of self-government, and voted by 52{[yuzde]} to 48{[yuzde]} to leave, which it duly did after a period of negotiation. The BBC's Carolyn Quinn visited Greenland to find out how they did it.
What does this mean for Scotland?
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in the wake of the Leave result that it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced being taken out of the EU when it voted to Remain. She said Mrs. May's decision to rule out the UK staying in the single market meant Scotland should have a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country, possibly in the EU. Ms Sturgeon has officially asked for permission for a second referendum to be held, saying that she wanted the vote to be held between the autumn of 2018 and spring 2019. Theresa May has said "this is not the time" for a second referendum.
What does it mean for Northern Ireland?
The land border between Northern Ireland and EU member the Republic of Ireland is likely to be a key part of the Brexit talks. There is currently a common travel area between the UK and the Republic. Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU in last year's referendum. The result in Northern Ireland was 56{[yuzde]} for Remain and 44{[yuzde]} for Leave.
Sinn Fein, which was part of the ruling coalition in the Northern Ireland Assembly before it was suspended, has called for a referendum on leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland as soon as possible. The Conservatives have rejected Sinn Fein's call, saying there was no evidence opinion had shifted in favor of a united Ireland. But Conservative Brexit spokesman David Davis has said that should the people of Northern Ireland ever vote to leave the UK, they would "be in a position of becoming part of an existing EU member state, rather than seeking to join the EU as a new independent state".
It would then be up to the EU Commission "to respond to any specific questions about the procedural requirements for that to happen," he added. But Mr Davis said the UK governments "clear position is to support Northern Ireland's current constitutional status: as part of the UK, but with strong links to Ireland".
Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn says there should be a referendum on Irish unity if the Northern Ireland Assembly wants one.
How will pensions, savings, investments and mortgages be affected?
During the referendum campaign, David Cameron said the so-called "triple lock" for state pensions would be threatened by a UK exit. This is the agreement by which pensions increase by at least the level of earnings, inflation or 2.5{[yuzde]} every year - whichever is the highest.
Theresa May duly ditched the commitment to the triple lock in the party's election manifesto, replacing it from 2020 with a "double lock", which would see pensions rise by at least the level of earnings or inflation, but not by a guaranteed minimum of 2.5{[yuzde]}. Labor has pledged to keep the triple lock. So far there has been a cut in interest rates, which has helped keep mortgage and other borrowing rates low. There are yet to be signs that rising inflation has worried the Bank of England enough to consider raising interest rates. But if that happened it would make mortgages and loans more expensive to repay - but would be good news for savers.
Will duty-free sales on Europe journeys return?
Journalists and writers on social media have greeted the reintroduction of duty-free sales as an "upside" or "silver lining" of Brexit. As with most Brexit consequences, whether this will happen depends on how negotiations with the EU play out - whether the "customs union" agreement between Britain and the EU is ended or continued.
Will EHIC cards still be valid?
They are at the moment but no-one knows the longer term prospects for definite. The EHIC card - which entitles travelers to state-provided medical help for any condition or injury that requires urgent treatment, in any other country within the EU, as well as several non-EU countries - is not an EU initiative. It was negotiated between countries within a group known as the European Economic Area, often simply referred to as the single market (plus Switzerland, which confusingly is not a member of the EEA, but has agreed access to the single market). Therefore, the future of Britons' EHIC cover could depend on whether the UK decided to sever ties with the EEA.
Will cars need new number plates?
Probably not, says BBC Europe correspondent Chris Morris, because there's no EU-wide law on vehicle registration or car number places, and the EU flag symbol is a voluntary identifier and not compulsory. The DVLA says there has been no discussion about what would happen to plates with the flag if the UK voted to leave.
Could MPs block an EU exit?
Could the necessary legislation pass the Commons, given that a lot of MPs in the current Parliament - all SNP and Lib Dems, nearly all Labour and many Conservatives - were in favour of staying? The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.
The withdrawal agreement also has to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report.
Will leaving the EU means we don't have to abide by the European Court of Human Rights?
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg is not a European Union institution. It was set up by the Council of Europe, which has 47 members including Russia and Ukraine. So quitting the EU will not exempt the UK from its decisions.
However, if the Conservatives win the general election they are committed to repealing the Human Rights Act which requires UK courts to treat the ECHR as setting legal precedents for the UK, in favour of a British Bill of Rights. As part of that, a Conservative government would be expected to announce measures that will boost the powers of courts in England and Wales to over-rule judgements handed down by the ECHR.
The Labor Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party have all campaigned against Conservative proposals to repeal the Human Rights Act.
The EU also has its own European Court of Justice, whose decisions are binding on EU institutions and member states. Its rulings have sometimes caused controversy in Britain and supporters of a Brexit have called for immediate legislation [xix] to curb its powers.
Will the UK be able to rejoin the EU in the future?
BBC Europe editor Katya Adler says the UK would have to start from scratch with no rebate, and enter accession talks with the EU. Every member state would have to agree to the UK re-joining. But she says with elections looming elsewhere in Europe, other leaders might not be generous towards any UK demands. New members are required to adopt the euro as their currency, once they meet the relevant criteria, although the UK could try to negotiate an opt-out.
Who wanted the UK to leave the EU?
The UK Independence Party, which received nearly four million votes - 13{[yuzde]} of those cast - in the 2015 general election, has campaigned for many years for Britain's exit from the EU. They were joined in their call during the referendum campaign by about half the Conservative Party's MPs, including Boris Johnson and five members of the then Cabinet. A handful of Labor MPs and Northern Ireland party the DUP were also in favor of leaving.
What were their reasons for wanting the UK to leave?
They said Britain was being held back by the EU, which they said imposed too many rules on business and charged billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They also wanted the UK to make all of its own laws again, rather than being created through shared decision making with other EU nations.
Immigration was also a big issue for Brexit supporters, They wanted Britain to take back full control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming here to live and/or work.
One of the main principles of EU membership is "free movement", which means you don't need to get a visa to go and live in another EU country. The Leave campaign also objected to the idea of "ever closer union" between EU member states and what they see as moves towards the creation of a "United States of Europe".
Who wanted the UK to stay in the EU?
Then Prime Minister David Cameron was the leading voice in the Remain campaign, after reaching an agreement with other European Union leaders that would have changed the terms of Britain's membership had the country voted to stay in. He said the deal would give Britain "special" status and help sort out some of the things British people said they didn't like about the EU, like high levels of immigration - but critics said the deal would make little difference. Sixteen members of Mr. Cameron's Cabinet, including the woman who would replace him as PM, Theresa May, also backed staying in. The Conservative Party was split on the issue and officially remained neutral in the campaign. The Labor Party, Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were all in favor of staying in. The then US president Barack Obama also wanted Britain to remain in the EU, as did the leaders of other EU nations such as France and Germany.
What were their reasons for wanting the UK to stay?
Those campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU said it got a big boost from membership - it makes selling things to other EU countries easier and, they argued, the flow of immigrants, most of whom are young and keen to work, fuels economic growth and helps pay for public services.
They also said Britain's status in the world would be damaged by leaving and that we are more secure as part of the 28 nation club, rather than going it alone.
What about businesses?
Big business - with a few exceptions - tended to be in favour of Britain staying in the EU because it makes it easier for them to move money, people and products around the world.
Given the crucial role of London as a financial center, there's interest in how many jobs may be lost to other hubs in the EU. Four of the biggest US banks have committed to helping maintain the City's position. But HSBC will move up to 1,000 jobs to Paris, the BBC understands. Some UK exporters say they've had increased orders or enquiries because of the fall in the value of the pound. Others are less optimistic; fearing products for the European market may have to be made at plants in the EU.
Who led the rival sides in the campaign?
Britain Stronger in Europe [xx] - the main cross-party group campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU was headed by former Marks and Spencer chairman Lord Rose. It was backed by key figures from the Conservative Party, including Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne, most Labor MPs, including party leader Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson, who ran the Labor In for Britain campaign, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Alliance party and the SDLP in Northern Ireland, and the Green Party. Who funded the campaign: Britain Stronger in Europe raised £6.88m, boosted by two donations totaling £2.3m from the supermarket magnate and Labor peer Lord Sainsbury. Other prominent Remain donors included hedge fund manager David Harding (£750,000), businessman and Travelex founder Lloyd Dorfman (£500,000) and the Tower Limited Partnership (£500,000). Read a Who's Who guide is recommended[xxi]. Who else campaigned to remain: The SNP ran its own remain campaign in Scotland as it did not want to share a platform with the Conservatives. Several smaller groups also registered to campaign.
Vote Leave - A cross-party campaign that has the backing of senior Conservatives such as Michael Gove and Boris Johnson plus a handful of Labour MPs, including Gisela Stuart and Graham Stringer, and UKIP's Douglas Carswell and Suzanne Evans, and the DUP in Northern Ireland. Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson and SDP founder Lord Owen were also involved. It had a string of affiliated groups such as Farmers for Britain, Muslims for Britain and Out and Proud, a gay anti-EU group, aimed at building support in different communities. Who funded the campaign: Vote Leave raised £2.78m. Its largest supporter was businessman Patrick Barbour, who gave £500,000. Former Conservative Party treasurer Peter Cruddas gave a £350,000 donation and construction mogul Terence Adams handed over £300,000. Who else campaigned to leave: UKIP leader Nigel Farage is not part of Vote Leave. His party ran its own campaign. The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition is also running its own out campaign. Several smaller groups also registered to campaign.
Will the EU still use English?
Yes, says BBC Europe editor Katya Adler. There will still be 27 other EU states in the bloc, and others wanting to join in the future, and the common language tends to be English - "much to France's chagrin", she says.
Will Brexit harm product safety?
Probably not, is the answer. It would depend on whether or not the UK decided to get rid of current safety standards. Even if that happened any company wanting to export to the EU would have to comply with its safety rules, and it's hard to imagine a company would want to produce two batches of the same products.
Which MPs were for staying and which for leaving?
The good news for Edward, from Cambridge, who asked this question, is we have been working on exactly such a list. The latest version can be followed on pertinent pages.
How much does the UK contribute to the EU and how much do we get in return?
In answer to this query from Nancy from Hornchurch - the UK is one of 10 member states who pay more into the EU budget than they get out, only France and Germany contribute more. In 2014/15, Poland was the largest beneficiary, followed by Hungary and Greece.
The UK also gets an annual rebate that was negotiated by Margaret Thatcher and money back, in the form of regional development grants and payments to farmers, which added up to £4.6bn in 2014/15. According to the latest Treasury figures, the UK's net contribution for 2014/15 was £8.8bn - nearly double what it was in 2009/10.
The National Audit Office, using a different formula which takes into account EU money paid directly to private sector companies and universities to fund research, and measured over the EU's financial year, shows the UK's net contribution for 2014 was £5.7bn. Read more number crunching from Reality Check.
If I retire to Spain or another EU country will my healthcare costs still be covered?
David, from East Sussex, is worried about what will happen to his retirement plans. This is one of those issues where it is not possible to say definitively what would happen. At the moment, the large British expat community in Spain gets free access to Spanish GPs and their hospital treatment is paid for by the NHS. After they become permanent residents Spain pays for their hospital treatment.
In some other EU countries such as France expats of working age are expected to pay the same healthcare costs as locals but once they reach retirement age their medical bills are paid by the NHS.
If Britain remains in the single market, or the European Economic Area as it is known, it might be able to continue with this arrangement, according to a House of Commons library research note. If Britain has to negotiate trade deals with individual member states, it may opt to continue paying for expats' healthcare through the NHS or decide that they would have to cover their own costs if they continue to live abroad, if the country where they live declines to do so.
What will happen to protected species?
Dee, from Launceston, wanted to know what would happen to EU laws covering protected species such as bats in the event of Britain leaving the EU. The answer is that they would remain in place, initially at least. After the Leave vote, the government will probably review all EU-derived laws in the two years leading up to the official exit date to see which ones to keep or scrap. The status of Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas, which are designated by the EU, would be reviewed to see what alternative protections could be applied. The same process would apply to European Protected Species legislation, which relate to bats and their habitats. The government would want to avoid a legislative vacuum caused by the repeal of EU laws before new UK laws are in place - it would also continue to abide by other international agreements covering environmental protection.
How much money will the UK save through changes to migrant child benefits and welfare payments?
Martin, from Poole, in Dorset, wanted to know what taxpayers would have got back from the benefit curbs negotiated by David Cameron in Brussels. We don't exactly know because the details were never worked out. HM Revenue and Customs suggested about 20,000 EU nationals receive child benefit payments in respect of 34,000 children in their country of origin at an estimated cost of about £30m.
But the total saving would have been significantly less than that because Mr Cameron did not get the blanket ban he wanted. Instead, payments would have been linked to the cost of living in the countries where the children live. David Cameron said as many as 40{[yuzde]} of EU migrant families who come to Britain could lose an average of £6,000 a year of in-work benefits when his "emergency brake" was applied. The DWP estimated between 128,700 and 155,100 people would be affected. But the cuts would have been phased in. New arrivals would not have got tax credits and other in-work benefits straight away but would have gradually gained access to them over a four year period at a rate that had not been decided. The plan will never be implemented now.
Will we be barred from the Eurovision Song Contest?
Sophie from Peterborough, who asks the question, need not worry. We have consulted Alasdair Rendall, president of the UK Eurovision fan club, who says: "All participating countries must be a member of the European Broadcasting Union. The EBU - which is totally independent of the EU - includes countries both inside and outside of the EU, and also includes countries such as Israel that are outside of Europe. Indeed the UK started participating in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1957, 16 years before joining the then EEC."
Has Brexit made house prices fall?
So far, the answer is no. But there has been anecdotal evidence of house prices falling at the top of the market in Central London and the annual increase in the price of property has fallen from 9.4{[yuzde]} at the time of the referendum to 7.2{[yuzde]} in December.
What is the 'red tape' that opponents of the EU complain about?
Ged, from Liverpool, suspects "red tape" is a euphemism for employment rights and environmental protection. According to the Open Europe think tank[xxii], four of the top five most costly EU regulations are either employment or environment-related. The UK renewable energy strategy, which the think-tank says costs £4.7bn a year, tops the list. The working time directive (£4.2bn a year) - which limits the working week to 48 hours - and the temporary agency workers directive (£2.1bn a year), giving temporary staff many of the same rights as permanent ones - are also on the list.
There is nothing to stop a future UK government reproducing these regulations in British law following the decision to leave the EU. And the costs of so-called "red tape" will not necessarily disappear overnight - if Britain opted to follow the "Norway model" and remained in the European Economic Area most of the EU-derived laws would remain in place.
Will Britain be party to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership?
Ste, in Bolton, asked about this. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - or TTIP - currently under negotiation between the EU and United States would create the biggest free trade area the world has ever seen.
Cheerleaders for TTIP, including former PM David Cameron, believed it could make American imports cheaper and boost British exports to the US to the tune of £10bn a year.
But many on the left, including Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, fear it will shift more power to multinational corporations, undermine public services, wreck food standards and threaten basic rights. New US President Donald Trump is not a fan of the TTIP agreement, which means it is now seen as unlikely to be agreed - but whatever happens, when the UK quits the EU it will not be part of TTIP and will have to negotiate its own trade deal with the US.
What impact will leaving the EU have on the NHS?
Paddy, from Widnes, wanted to know how leaving the EU will affect the number of doctors we have and impact the NHS[xxiii].This became an issue in the referendum debate after the Leave campaign claimed the money Britain sends to the EU, which it claimed was £350m a week, could be spent on the NHS instead. Before the vote Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt warned that leaving the EU would lead to budget cuts and an exodus of overseas doctors and nurses. The Leave campaign dismissed his intervention as "scaremongering" and insisted that EU membership fees could be spent on domestic services like the NHS. Since the referendum spending on the NHS has continued at the same level as planned. EU citizens working for the NHS are expected to get the right to stay in the UK; although details on EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU are yet to be finalized Sally Miller bought a house in Spain nine years ago and plans to retire there in the next five years. She asks
How Brexit will affect this?
The BBC's Kevin Connolly says: The issue of free movement - the rights of EU citizens to live and work in the UK - was a huge issue in the Brexit referendum of course, and will be a big part of the exit negotiations. We've heard quite a bit from the British side already with the government saying that securing the status and rights of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU is one of the government's earliest priorities, and specifically that it is looking for a reciprocal deal. So you might feel the mood music is encouraging but all we can say for sure is that, while there are no guarantees yet, it will be a big part of the Brexit negotiations to come. Jonathan Eaton is a Briton living in the Netherlands with his wife, who is Dutch. He asks what rights to benefits and housing he will have if he has to return to the UK. BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith says: The short answer is there is no easy access to benefits. As it stands at the moment, Brexit aside, you will have to pass what's known as a habitual residence test which was introduced in 1994 and applies to British citizens just as EU citizens. The rules have been tightened up which means for some benefits, if you have been out of the country you can't even think about applying for the test for several months. For example, when it comes to job seeker's allowance, you cannot even take the test to apply for those benefits for three months. And that was done to stop EU citizens coming here and just getting on benefits straight away. After three months, you can take the test which looks at your English language skills, what sort of efforts you made to find work before coming to the UK. It also considers how strong a tie you have to the UK, whether you have property or family here and what your intentions are in terms of staying and working, or returning. But once you have taken the test, if you pass it then you should be eligible to apply for a range of benefits, as long as you meet the usual requirements in terms of income and showing you are looking for work. That is likely to continue when we move fully on to Universal Credit. The one sort of unknown in the whole system is what happens with Brexit negotiations, in terms of guaranteeing the rights of British nationals abroad.
And we simply don't know what that will involve and whether in any way that might impact on how soon you can apply for benefits when you come back to Britain.
What will happen to the European Health Insurance Card when Britain leaves the EU, asks Terry Hunt.
Norman Smith says: At the moment, we can be sure that if we feel a little bit peaky in another part of the EU then we're pretty much OK because we can get the same sort of healthcare as citizens already in that country. That applies to prescriptions, GP visits and hospitals stays. What happens when we leave the EU is, like so much of Brexit-land, unknown. The current system could continue. If, however, that were not possible, and we could still have deals with individual countries about reciprocal health rights, because we already have that with a number of countries such as Australia, Israel, and Russia. But there are no guarantees we will be able to arrive at these reciprocal deals. So my guess is that it will be in everyone's interest just to carry on with the current coverage. But failing that, my advice would be to keep taking the vitamins, pack some Lemsip and stay away from draughty windows when you're travelling abroad.
Will I have to buy a new passport and driving license, and will my rights to use them freely across Europe be taken away from me after Brexit, asks Francis Lee.
Kevin Connolly says: At the moment UK passports carry the words European Union and British driving licenses have the blue square with yellow flags of the EU. That will presumably change after Brexit but it seems likely that the change will be phased in so that you'll simply get documents with the new design when the old ones expire. That's what happened, I seem to remember, when the UK joined the EU. Anything else would be expensive and risk flooding the system, after all.
The right to use them freely is an interesting question. When we talk about restrictions on freedom of movement we generally mean the freedom to live and work in another country. If Britain poses restrictions on the EU in that respect then it can expect some kind of response.
But in terms of tourism there are plenty of non-EU countries whose citizens can visit the UK for up to 90 days without a visa. And, as part of the Brexit negotiations, you'd expect similar arrangements to be discussed for the UK.
Both sides need each other’s' tourists and, after all, if you can drive a car in the United States on a UK license then it doesn't seem fanciful to assume that you'll be able to do the same in Europe in future.
It is very clear that the PM and the government want to leave the tyranny of the European Court of Justice. Why has leaving the European Court of Human Rights (an organisation far more hated than the ECJ) been ignored, asks Barry Fryer.
Kevin Connolly says:Two different courts here of course, so two different bits of politics. Crucially, the European Court of Human Rights is not an EU institution and that's why discussions about leaving it have not formed a key part of the Brexit debate.
The European Court of Justice - the ECJ - is one of the primary institutions of the European Union and administers EU law. So, while it might have a role in supervising a future trade deal, part of the goal of Brexit was to remove the UK from the ECJ's jurisdiction. The European Court of Human Rights which, as Barry points out, can be even more controversial, is a body set up not by the EU but by member states of the Council of Europe, a separate institution which contains countries that aren't EU members.
It's this court which has produced rulings which have been controversial in the UK, including blocking the extradition of Abu Qatada and establishing the right of serving prisoners to vote in elections - and leaving the EU won't change anything here.
Adrian Wallis runs a small electronics company and wants to know about export tariffs after Brexit, and what they'd mean for his business.
Kevin Connolly says:
As long as Britain has been in the EU we haven't really talked much about tariffs. That's because all trade within the European Economic Area is tariff-free. On top of that the EU has trade agreements with 52 other countries as well.
After Brexit, Britain have to negotiate new deals all on its own. That's both a problem and an opportunity. For example you can use tariffs against foreign imports to protect businesses you care about, as the EU does with agricultural produce, but you do then run the risk of retaliation from your trading partners.
The key body in all of this is the World Trade Organization and at the moment the UK is only a member via its membership of the EU.
One bit of good news is that the UK will automatically become a member in its own right as soon as it leaves the EU. That matters because in the period when the UK is negotiating a new trade deal with the EU, and that could take years, trade would be conducted under WTO rules.
At the moment, for non-food items, that implies an average tariff of about 2.3{[yuzde]}
But suppose the EU were to impose a 10{[yuzde]} tariff on UK car imports, for example. Well, then the UK could impose the same tariff on German and French cars.
In theory, an economist would say that creates a situation where everyone has an incentive to sort out a better deal for their consumers. The snag is that these things take years, if not decades. They tend to be done on a country-by-country and sector-by-sector basis. So if Adrian is waiting to find out the implications for his business, then I'm afraid he's going to have to be patient. Maybe, very patient he added..
What impact will leaving the European Union have on the UK's long term political influence in Europe, asks Peter Hoare.
Norman Smith says: There are basically two views on what will happen in terms of clout when outside the EU. View one is that the UK projects power and influence in the world, working through organizations such as the EU and that on our own it'll be a much diminished force.
View two is that unencumbered by the other 27 members, the UK can get on with things and start adopting a much more independent, self-confident, assertive role on the world stage.
My take is that not much is probably going to change. I say that because the UK'll still be a member of significant organizations such as the UN and NATO, and will still be co-operating with EU partners. For example, there will still be close ties on defense with the French.
The UK will still be the same old Britain, will still have significant military force, will still be a wealthy country and will still be a nuclear power, so I don't think people will suddenly think the UK's an entirely different country.
Are other countries likely to leave the EU and if so could we start a new free trade area, asks David John.
Kevin Connolly says: Funnily enough, I was discussing this question just the other day with a French politician, a conservative and a real Europhile, and he said he thought if there was a free vote in France tomorrow, as the right wing National Front would like, that the French would vote to leave.
But generally speaking I can't see much prospect of a tidal wave of insurrectionist, “exitism” sweeping the continent. When a country like Ireland has a spat with the EU about tax, for example, it does annoy Irish politicians, but most mainstream leaders in the Europe have grown up with the idea that the EU has brought peace and prosperity for decades.
Lots of them see plenty that irritates them about the European Union, but they mainly argue that the benefits hugely outweigh the irritations. And in countries where you do find Euroscepticism, such as Poland and Hungary, there is also a healthy awareness that there are huge financial benefits to membership. As for the future, we will see. If the UK were to get a fantastic Brexit deal then maybe others would be tempted to go.
But the truth is, lots of European politicians want the EU to be tough with Britain precisely to stop other countries from following it through the door. As to Britain forming its own free trade area, I think it seems an awfully long shot and on balance it is unlikely, not least because there are not that many free countries around available to recruit into another free trade area.
Britain could perhaps join the Free Trade Association along with Norway, Lichtenstein and Switzerland. But of course it would be joining under existing rules, so the likeliest future for a post-Brexit UK, I think, is a future where it tries to do the best deal possible with the EU and then looks around for other free trade deals.
But that would fall short of creating a free trade area based on the UK itself.
What will happen to the borders in Gibraltar and Northern Ireland, asks Nigel May.
Kevin Connolly says:
I think the question of what is going to happen to difficult borders after Brexit is one of the most difficult of the lot. Since 1985 when Spain joined the EU, it has basically been prevented from closing the border with Gibraltar as a way of applying pressure to the British territory.
In fact, 12,000 Spanish people cross into the territory to work every day and the area of Spain around Gibraltar is a pretty depressed area so they are important jobs.
On the other hand, the Spanish have talked openly about this being an opportunity to get Gibraltar back. Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, its minister of foreign affairs, said in September the UK's vote to leave the EU was "a unique historical opportunity in more than three hundred years to get Gibraltar back".
But at a minimum, as things stand, it looks to me as though they could certainly re-impose border controls if they chose to. The situation with Ireland's border is more complex.
For those of us for whom Northern Ireland is home, the total disappearance of military check points on the border is one of the most tangible daily reminders of the end of the troubles and no one wants a border like that back. But, when the day comes when Ireland is in the EU and the UK is not, then the Irish border of course is also going to be the UK's land border with the European Union.
Conservative leader Theresa May has said we don't see a return to the borders of the past, but the reality is that if Britain leaves the common customs area, then presumably some sort of checks are going to be necessary on that border. And if the UK wants to stop Polish or Romanian migrant workers using Dublin airport as a back door into the UK, then it is going to have to do something about that too. Of course, what it will all mean for towns and villages like Belleek and Belcoo in County Fermanagh, which more or less straddle the border, is hard to imagine.
How much has Brexit cost so far and how much will it cost by the end, asks Simon Johnston.
Norman Smith says: I think the truth is, no one truly knows what the costs will be of leaving the EU. That is in part because it is at the very center of the whole row over Brexit, so if you talk to Brexiteers then they assume we will be "quids in" by leaving the EU, if you talk to “Remainers” then they assume it is going to be a tragedy.
We simply don't know because we don't know what is going to happen to the economy, whether it is going to prosper or whether it is going to flounder.
How will access to healthcare change for expats living in the EU, asks Veronique Bradley, who lives in Italy.
Kevin Connolly says: Healthcare is one of those issues that remains relatively simple as long as the UK remains in the EU.
It is just part of a range of citizens' rights that apply across the entire union. After Brexit, I suppose there will be two possibilities. The first and easiest would be that the negotiators come up with a reciprocal deal that keeps the current arrangements, or something a bit like them, in place. If they don't, the situation will depend on the individual country where you live.
For the Bradley’s in Italy, for example, residents from non-EU countries, and that will soon include the Brits, will have to finalize their residency status, acquire an Italian identity card and then apply for an Italian health insurance card.
If they visit the UK at the moment, access to the NHS for non-resident Brits is not straightforward unless you have a European health insurance card. The right to treatment is based on residency, not on your tax status. So, even if you live abroad and pay some British tax on a buy-to-let property for instance, you might find yourself getting a bill for any NHS treatment you end up getting while you are back in the UK.
What will happen to EU nationals who lived and worked in the UK and now receive a British state pension, asks Peter Barz, a German citizen living in the UK.
Norman Smith says: If you are an EU national and you get a British state pension, nothing much should change, because the state pension is dependent not on where you come from, but on how long you have paid National Insurance contributions in the UK.
So it doesn't matter whether you come from Lithuania or Latvia or Transylvania or Timbuktu, what counts is how much you have paid in terms of National Insurance contributions. There is one wrinkle though and that is that you have to have paid in for at least 10 years. Under the current rules, if you are an EU citizen and haven't paid in for 10 years, you can point to any contributions you have made in your native country and say, "I paid in there", and that will count.
That works for EU countries and another 16 countries with which the UK has social security agreements. Once we have left the EU, you will no longer be able to do that unless we negotiate new reciprocal agreements. If we don't then potentially, if you have paid in fewer than than 10 years' worth of National Insurance contributions, you will not get a British state pension.
Is it possible to be both an EU citizen and not an EU citizen, asks Declan O'Neill, who holds an Irish passport.
Kevin Connolly says: I should probably declare some sort of interest here as a dual Irish and British national myself.
Of course, anyone born in Northern Ireland has an absolute right to carry both passports.
Declan might be happy to know that this is one of the few questions where I can't see a downside as long as you are happy and comfortable carrying both passports. The Irish document means you continue to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship, and the British passport will give you full rights in the UK at the same time. Call it one of the clear joys of coming from Northern Ireland, alongside the rolling hills, rugged coastline and enjoyable breaks between the showers. All you have to do is remember to carry the Irish passport when you are joining the EU citizens-only queue at the airport in future.
I
Is there a get-out clause for Article 50, asks Gillian Coates.
Norman Smith says: I think the honest answer is you would have to be a legal eagle to answer this. But my take on it is that legally it looks like once we trigger Article 50 we are locked in, and that is certainly how the European Parliament reads it.
And there is a view that if we were in this two-year process after triggering Article 50 and we wanted to get out of it, then ultimately that would be a decision for the European Court of Justice. However, in the real world I think it is likely to be rather different, whatever the legal protocol. I think the truth is, if we were trundling along and decided it was all going to be catastrophic and we have got to pull up the handbrake pretty sharpish, a lot of other EU countries would be probably be laughing at us, but I think at the same time they would probably be quite pleased we weren't going.
So I think the short answer is: legally, it doesn't look so good if you want to get out of it, but politically, it probably can be done with the support of other European leaders.
Eric Degerland asks when UK passports are going to change.
Kevin Connolly says: This takes us to the heart of an issue that lots of people really care about. It will be a real and palpable sign of Brexit when there is a new UK passport without the words "European Union" on the front cover. Sadly, the short answer is we don't really know when the change will come about. But we can say that the cheapest thing for the government to do would be to phase in the new passports as people's old ones expire. So if you're looking forward to getting back that blue hard-back passport we had in the old days, you may have a long time to wait. But we can say that the cheapest thing for the government to do would be to phase in the new passports as people's old ones expire.So if you're looking forward to getting back that blue hard-back passport we had in the old days, you may have a long time to wait.[xxiv]
BREXIT FROM AN INTERNATIONAL LEGAL PERSPECTIVE
Brexit from an International Legal Perspective Published: July 21, 2016 by Markus Gehring. a senior fellow with CIGI’s International Law Research Program (ILRP) focusing on international economic law, trade and climate change, as well as trade, investment and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He is also the Arthur Watts Senior Research Fellow in Public International Law with the British Institute of International and Comparative Law and a fellow of the Lauterpacht Centre for International Law at the University of Cambridge.
[xxv]While the Leave side celebrated their surprise victory and the Remain side was in shock, international lawyers in London and Brussels must have been frantically weighing the options for implementing their governments’ respective “Brexit” negotiation strategies. The referendum question did not specify what degree of separation was intended. There appear to be a few options.
Does Brexit need Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union?
The first question is easy to answer. Unless the United Kingdom chooses to
violate European Union and international law on a significant scale, there is
only Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU), or changes to the
existing treaties, as a valid exit from the EU treaties. Violating EU law does
not generally pay off, as fines can be imposed and, under international law,
countermeasures could be adopted. Is recourse to international law even
possible in this situation? The “Hungarian president case” of the Court of
Justice of the European Union is instructive. Hungary complained that its
president was denied access to Slovakia on a private visit to a local festival.
While citizens enjoy free movement under EU law, the court sided with
Slovakia’s denial of entry, agreeing that although heads of state enjoy special
rights under international law, these same rights also create exceptions to EU
rules of free movement. Legal advice to the UK would include not
underestimating the power of either EU or international law while in this
strange limbo between invocation of article 50 TEU and breach of EU and
international law. From a political economy perspective, it might not be
prudent to violate existing economic and other obligations vis-à-vis one
important set of partners while also seeking to negotiate new economic accords
with other parts of the world. There are some who have argued that, after the
referendum, the UK government is under an obligation to make an article 50 TEU
declaration. European Union law prefers to keep its member states and contains
no such obligation. The question is, could a member state government change its
mind after making an article 50 TEU declaration? Again, the answer would be:
most certainly. Even at the very end of the negotiations, there would still be
the option to withdraw such a declaration in accordance with the member state’s
constitutional provisions.
Could “no Brexit” be an option?
The UK referendum was not binding constitutionally, and many scholars have argued that a very tight referendum does not send a clear signal for fundamental constitutional change. The UK Parliament is sovereign and thus even a very clear Brexit referendum cannot bind it legally. So Parliament — and, with added emphasis, a new parliament elected in a new general election — could decide to ignore the referendum. Politically, however, it would be very difficult to completely ignore the referendum. Given the implications of leaving the EU internal market, some have suggested that a second version of the Brexit deal, with greater control over immigration, could still pay lip service to Brexit while largely maintaining the status quo.
What about a “cosmetic Brexit”?
There is, of course, the possibility for a “cosmetic” Brexit, by which the UK formally leaves the European Union but remains a participating country in the single market. It could be an arrangement similar to that of the G77 and China: the UK would get special mention, and those actions in which it participates would be said to be acts by the European Union and the UK.
The disadvantage for the UK would be that this would mean accepting most of the
economic rules, with very little say on their development and no curb on inner
EU/UK immigration.
Some have claimed that the Government of Scotland is lobbying for an option
whereby it would remain a full EU member and the rest of the UK would leave.
While all possible options should be explored, this one would require some very
uncomfortable acrobatics. While EU law applies in many other parts of the
world, this is mainly by virtue of the member state having overseas holdings.
The case of the post-Brexit UK would be entirely different, as it would not be
a member and thus could not decide which parts of EU law would apply to parts
of its territory. Pre-independent Scotland would also not have all necessary
competences to fulfill EU obligations.
Could a “messy divorce” occur?
This option involves both sides washing their dirty laundry in public and the entire world economy suffering as a consequence.
Leave campaigners cleverly pulled the wool over the UK electorate’s eyes when they claimed “Our trade relations with the rest of the world remain unchanged” (Lord Lawson, 29 February 2016). This is, of course, utterly untrue. They claimed that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and “continuing” trade agreements would protect the post-Brexit UK. However, the terms of the UK’s membership in the WTO, and all other “mixed” trade agreements (trade treaties concluded by both the EU and its member states) could be in jeopardy if the UK tries to exit without first securing a successful transitional agreement with the European Union.
The UK itself concluded, in the Balance of Competence Review by the UK
Department of Business, Skills and Innovation, that: “gaining greater control
over such relations with third countries means giving up benefits of access to
the Single Market [in the EU].”
Admittedly, the UK could probably sign more trade deals with non-EU countries
if it left, but there are two caveats. First, those deals aren’t easy to agree
while maintaining important protections such as a public health system such as
the National Health Service, and public education, which are areas of keen
liberalization for many other countries. Second, as seen in the Trans-Pacific
Partnership discussions, even if the European Union has nothing to do with such
treaties, they can take a very long time to negotiate, and they remain controversial
among Brexit supporters. Even if the UK left the European Union and the UK
forwent the considerably increased weight that the EU commands in negotiations,
the United States would surely ask the UK for similar things in the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership after Brexit — or even more.
This assumes that the United States would want to negotiate one, which US
officials have thus far denied. Indeed, President Barack Obama hinted at the
fact that the UK would have to join “the back of the queue” in the event of a
Brexit. This, in a context of considerably more pressure on the UK to quickly
conclude trade deals, could mean sensitive areas, especially in services
(liberalized in the United States, but not in the UK), finally being added to
the table.
From a legal perspective, a solution negotiated in good faith would be the best option for all parties involved. It seems that the most optimistic Brexit vision seems unlikely to be realized, given that other countries are not exactly rushing to conclude trade deals with the UK. All options involve a period of considerable uncertainty, especially if the European Union does not even start trade negotiations with the UK until after Brexit.
Markus Gehring – His personal opinion?
The UK would be much better off if it stayed a member state of the European Union.
REFERENCES
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/19/brexit-uk-eu-talks-start-19-june
Videos - Brexit Referendum: euroskeptics gloat on social media, hope for domino effect- Greek elections: A domino effect in France? http://www.france24.com/en/20170121-marine-le-pen-hails-new-europe-eu-far-right-leaders-meeting-koblenz
Express Co UK. 'Is it REALLY worth it?' Turkey 'does NOT want to join the EU' after Brexit vote TURKEY could turn its back on their 54-year campaign to join the EU after Brexit exposed the weakness of the disintegrating union, a senior Turkish official has claimed. -By Vincent Wood published: 01:59, Fri, Apr 14, 2017 | UPDATED: 07:21, Fri, Apr 14, 2017
Turkey's Erdogan wants Brexit-like vote on pursuit of EU membership Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he may hold a nationwide vote on whether to continue to pursue EU membership. Turkey's government began accession talks with the EU in 2005, but the process stalled years ago.
http://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-erdogan-wants-brexit-like-vote-on-pursuit-of-eu-membership/a-38122493
https://euobserver.com/foreign/137737
[i] BBC On this Day 1950-2005 Dates Stories http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/1/newsid_2459000/2459167.stm
[ii] European Union,, The Brexit Gamble. What the EU27 want: Brexit red lines What the EU27 want: Brexit red lines from the other side of the table While Britain’s deal breakers are well known, we look at what they are for its negotiating partners. Not all are shared, yet all will play a part in any final deal Tuesday 21 February 2017 11.30 GMT https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/feb/20/what-the-eu27-want-brexit-red-lines-from-the-other-side-of-the-table
[iii] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/feb/20/what-the-eu27-want-brexit-red-lines-from-the-other-side-of-the-table
[iv] Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin in Brussels and Heather Stewart in London Wednesday 3 May 2017 16.03 BST https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/brexit-talks-will-not-be-quick-or-painless-says-eu-chief-negotiator
[v] EU Accession Referendum Belfast Telegraph http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/turkey-may-hold-referendum-on-eu-membership-35565196.html
[vi] Middle East Monitor https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170224-turks-in-britain-worry-about-future-of-visa-free-deal/
[vii] Ankara agreement -ECAA
http://www.garthcoates.com/eu-law/ecaa-turkish.asp
http://www.garthcoates.com/working-in-the-uk/ecaa-ankara-agreement.asp
[viii] U.K. Voters, Share Your Views on the Election By THE New York Times May 31, 2017
Election https://nyti.ms/2slC7FH
[ix] Merkel Signals New Era for Europe as Trump Smashes Consensus
by Patrick Donahue May 28, 2017, 9:31 PM GMT+3 Merkel Signals New Era for Europe as Trump Smashes Consensus https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-28/merkel-signals-new-era-for-europe-as-trump-smashes-consensus
[x] The New York Times, London - Opinion section The Opinion Pages | OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR- Why ‘Brexit’ Will Make Britain’s Mediocre Economy Worse by Simon Tilford ,the deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform-- 29th May 2017
Why ‘Brexit’ Will Make Britain’s Mediocre Economy Worse https://nyti.ms/2rf4rMK
Reuters Business News | Wed May 31, 2017 | 8:24am EDT /EU watchdog issues licensing guide for Brexit rush of financial firms (Editing by David Goodman) By Huw Jones | LONDON
[xii] Tom Batchelor Independent , May 30, 2017 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/irish-passport-applications-surge-brexit-uk-ambassador-dan-mulhall-dramatic-leave-eu-a7762916.html
[xiii] Revealed: Jeremy Corbyn's leaked plan to allow thousands of unskilled workers into the UK after Brexit.by Kate McCann, senior political correspondent from The Telegraph on 30 May 2017 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/30/revealed-jeremy-corbyns-leaked-plan-allow-thousands-unskilled/
[xiv] May Battles Against Complacency as U.K. Election Lead Slips Away Tim Ross and Thomas Penny May 30, 2017, 2:07 AM GMT+3 https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-29/may-battles-against-complacency-as-u-k-election-lead-slips-away
[xv] Bloomberg The SNP Says It's the Only Party That Can Stand Up to the Conservatives by Lukanyo Mnyanda May 30, 2017, 2:01 AM GMT+3 Scottish National Party set out its opposition to U.K. spending cuts and Brexit https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-29/scottish-nationalists-set-out-opposition-to-u-k-cuts-and-brexit
[xvi] Bloomberg - Brexit Bulletin: Another Escape Route Closes
by David Goodman May 30, 2017, 9:48 AM GMT+3 Brexit Bulletin: Lawyer gives up effort to reverse Article 50 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-30/brexit-bulletin-another-escape-route-closes
[xvii] The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/03/grexit-greece-debt-crisis-eu-germany-us
[xviii] BBC News - Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU by Alex Hunt & Brian Wheeler BBC News 25 April 2017 From the section Brexit http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
[xx] Britain Stronger in Europa http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#cbDIt2Rkz6QPexl0.97
[xxi] BBC News 13 June 2016 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34505076
[xxii] Open Europe Think Tank http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/top-100-eu-rules-cost-britain-33-3bn/ Open Europe estimates that the top 100 EU regulations cost the UK economy £33.3bn annually (2014 prices).Source: Open Europe, UK Government, Financial Conduct Authority
[xxiii] National Health Service (NHS) England xecutive non-departmental public body (NDPB) of the Department of Health. NHS England oversees the budget, planning, delivery and day-to-day operation of the commissioning side of the NHS in England as set out in the Health and Social Care Act 2012.
[xxv] Brexit from an International Legal Perspective Published: July 21, 2016 Author Markus Gehring. Markus Gehring is a senior fellow with CIGI’s International Law Research Program (ILRP) focusing on international economic law, trade and climate change, as well as trade, investment and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He is also the Arthur Watts Senior Research Fellow in Public International Law with the British Institute of International and Comparative Law and a fellow of the Lauterpacht Centre for International Law at the University of Cambridge. https://www.cigionline.org/publications/brexit-international-legal-perspective?gclid=
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